&l;p class=&q;tweet_line&q;&g;Gold is due for an early April high.&l;/p&g;
This analysis begins with the monthly histogram of gold from 1969. The histogram bars represent the expected return in each month. Note that the yellow metal is in the weaker part of its seasonal period
Chart 1: Monthly Expected Return- Gold
&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-193198&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2019/03/GOLD-1.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;274&q; data-width=&q;1132&q;&g; This seasonality histogram shows that gold is in its weaker period.
Both the weekly and the monthly cycles are peaking in the first week of April. All three of the monthly sell signals have led to lower prices in the past twelve months. Six of eight weekly sell signals have been successful in the last year.
Chart 2: Gold Monthly Cycle
&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-193199&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2019/03/GOLD-2-1200x322.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;322&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; The weekly gold cycle will peak.
Chart 3: Gold Weekly Cycle
&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-193200&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2019/03/GOLD-3-1200x329.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;329&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; The monthly cycle also hits a high.
With the cycle peaks only a week away, there should be some technical evidence of coming weakness and we do detect this below. Note that gold has made higher price highs as momentum has made lower highs, a bearish divergence. The $1260 area is a reasonable downside target.
If gold ends February with a gain as it did, the probability of higher prices in April is 56% versus 39% if it does not. If March closes on the upside, the odds of a higher market in April are 60% versus 44% if gold closes the month on the downside. At present, gold is down about $1 in March, but only needs to add more than a buck in the coming week to trigger the better odds.
Chart 4: Daily Gold
&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-193201&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2019/03/GOLD-4-1200x339.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;339&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; This daily graph shows a loss of momentum as price has risen.
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&a;nbsp;&l;/p&g;
