The Big Picture
The jobs picture continued to brighten to the end of June. In the first half of 2013, in response, U.S. stock markets rallied to levels not seen in six years. Global markets stagnated. The S&P 500 index traded above the 1670 level in early June. Then, it settled down.
Strong evidence showed capital leaving bonds funds after Fed taper talk picked up. A rising 10-year U.S. risk-free rate is the major issue now.
Fed and Japanese BoJ bond buying is at work, month-to-month. With more job additions, most U.S. stimulus timelines move into this year.
Is it time to buy in early July?
We��e onboard for a further rise in U.S. stocks under global QE. If a Fed taper hits this fall, look for a sell-off. This fall downside risk puts a range-bound market into play for the summer. Markets don�� like uncertainty.
Hot Japanese Companies To Invest In Right Now: Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT (BKRKY)
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (the Bank) is an Indonesia-based financial institution. It is engaged in banking activities and its products and services include savings, loans, credits, treasury products and investment banking. It provides service to micro, small and middle enterprise (SME). Besides that, the Bank also engages in providing consumer finance as well as e-banking services which can be accessed by Internet, telephone, Short Message Service (SMS) and other e-channel service such as Cash Deposit Machine (CDM), Electronic Data Capture (EDC), and KiosK. The Bank's subsidiaries are PT Bank BRISyariah, PT Bank Agroniaga Tbk and BRIngin Remittance Co. Ltd. The Bank has an international branch in Cayman Islands and two representative offices in New York and Hong Kong. Advisors' Opinion:- [By Holly LaFon]
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BKRKY) (Persero) Tbk PT, a leading commercial bank and microfinance lender in Indonesia, declined in the third quarter. Recent stock performance was largely attributable to a significant drop in the Indonesian Rupiah. While we believe the company's fundamentals and competitive position remain sound, the country suffered a larger than expected deterioration in its current account deficit, leading to a weaker currency and higher interest rates, which negatively impacted its local equity market. (Michael Kass)
Hot Japanese Companies To Invest In Right Now: Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PETR3)
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (Petrobras) is a Brazil-based integrated oil and gas company. The Company divides its activities into seven segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; Biofuel; Distribution and International. Directly or through its subsidiaries, Petrobras is engaged in the research, extraction, refining, processing, trade and transport of oil from wells, shale and other rocks, its derivatives, natural gas and other liquid hydrocarbons, as well as in activities related to energy, development, production, transport, distribution and commercialization of energy. The Company's offering comprises road transportation products such as Automotive Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Natural Vehicular Gas, Lubrax; agriculture and cattle raising products such as Sunflower Meal, among others; Industrial products such as Solvents and Paraffins, among others. The Company provides its services both for individual and business clients. Advisors' Opinion:- [By Julia Leite]
Brazil�� Ibovespa rose 1.2 percent, reversing a decline of as much as 0.9 percent, as Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR3), Brazil�� state-run crude producer, surged. The real added 1.5 percent.
- [By Maria Levitov]
Brazil�� Ibovespa advanced amid speculation that a three-session slump for Brazil�� benchmark equity index was excessive. Usiminas, as Usinas de Minas Gerais is known, rose 7.5 percent, while oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR3) contributed the most to the gauge�� advance.
10 Best Supermarket Stocks To Buy Right Now: Alon USA Energy Inc. (ALJ)
Alon USA Energy, Inc. engages in refining and marketing petroleum products primarily in the South Central, Southwestern, and Western regions of the United States. The company operates in three segments: Refining and Marketing, Asphalt, and Retail. The Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, feed stocks, asphalts, and other petroleum products. It markets finished products and blend stocks through sales and exchanges with other oil companies, state and federal governmental entities, unbranded wholesale distributors, and various other third parties. This segment also markets motor fuels to distributors under the Alon brand; and licenses Alon brand name and provides payment card processing services, advertising programs, and loyalty and other marketing programs to licensed locations. The Asphalt segment is involved in the marketing of patented tire rubber modified asphalt products; and production of paving and roofing grades of asphalt comprising performance-graded asphalts, emulsions, and cutbacks. This segment sells paving asphalt to road and materials manufacturers and highway construction/maintenance contractors; polymer modified or emulsion asphalt to highway maintenance contractors; and roofing asphalt to roofing shingle manufacturers or other industrial users. The Retail segment operates retail convenience stores that offer various grades of gasoline, diesel fuel, food products, tobacco products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, and general merchandise primarily under the 7-Eleven and Alon brands. As of December 31, 2012, it had 298 retail convenience stores located in Central and West Texas, and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Alon USA Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Alon Israel Oil Company, Ltd.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Alon USA Energy (ALJ) and Alon USA Partners (ALDW) are surging thanks to a Credit Suisse upgrade, even as refiners like Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX) and Holly Frontier (HFC) stumble.
Bloomberg NewsAnalyst Edward Westlake and team explain their optimism for the Alon USA pair:
ALDW: Accounting for the revised commodity forecasts (plus support from
the self-help programs that the company is pursuing), our LT EBITDA rises by c4% on average. Granted that there is the possibility that ALDW will not be able to pay out a distribution in 4Q13/1Q14, we flag that for those willing to look past the near-term headwinds, the rolling 12 month forward potential yield starting in 2Q14 is 15% (and rises to c20% by 4Q14) ��Certainly hard to overlook at these levels.ALJ: Accounting for the revised commodity forecasts (plus support from selfhelp
programs), our LT EBITDA rises by c9% on average. ALJ could be worth up to c$15/sh (including the $2.25/sh expected contribution from the Bakersfield start-up ��Delivery of this project is key). At current levels, the stock still provides c20% upside in the scenario where Bakersfield does not proceed (or c40% if it does). We raise our rating and target price to Neutral and $14/sh.Alon USA Energy has gained 11% to $11.34 and Alon USA Partners has risen 5.2% to $11.12, even as Valero Energy has dropped 0.5% to $40.12, Phillips 66 has dipped 0.4% to $65.09 and Holly Frontier has fallen 1.1% to $43.71.
- [By Robert Rapier] In last week’s issue I discussed the basics of the refining sector. Today I will provide an overview of four MLPs that hold refining assets.
To review, the refining sector was very profitable in 2012 thanks to unusually high crack spreads, which for many US refiners are approximated by the price differential between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oils. For a more thorough explanation of this phenomenon, please refer to last week’s issue.
After years of trading at a $1 to $3 per barrel discount to WTI, Brent began fetching a premium a few years ago as a glut of crude developed in the mid-continent area of the US. In 2011 the Brent-WTI price differential increased to more than $25/bbl, and it remained historically high in 2012.
But pipeline capacity started to catch up this year, and the share prices of refiners retreated as the glut began to dissipate and the Brent-WTI differential shrank. In Q3 2012, the Brent-WTI differential averaged $17.43/bbl, but by Q3 of this year, the differential had fallen to $4.43/bbl. This promises bad news for refiners about to report Q3 earnings.
Many analysts downgraded the refining sector in Q3, but as the differential fell below $5/bbl it was hard to imagine that the news could get much worse. With poor Q3 results largely priced in, the differential subsequently rose back above $10/bbl, signaling better refining margins moving into Q4.
Refiners began to post earnings this past week, and as expected they were weak. Valero (NYSE: VLO) reported slightly higher revenues year-over-year, but net earnings fell more than 50 percent from a year ago. Nevertheless, they beat the extremely pessimistic expectations of analysts, and Valero shares rose on the news.
Phillips 66’s (NYSE: PSX) refining unit actually posted a loss, but its chemical business turned in a solid quarter which more than compensated for the disappointing refining results.
The rest of the refine - [By Seth Jayson]
Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ ) reported earnings on May 8. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Alon USA Energy beat expectations on revenues and crushed expectations on earnings per share. - [By Dan Dzombak]
Among companies with over a $1 billion market cap, today's oil and gas stocks leader was Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ ) , up 4.95% to $17.16. During the refiners' drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, Alon dropped 12.89%. Despite the comeback today, the stock is still down 8.6% from where it was before the plunge. Alon USA owns refineries in Louisiana and California, 11 asphalt terminals, as well as 300 7-11 retail locations. The company has been profiting heavily from the massive price difference between WTI and Brent crude. In November of 2012, the company IPO'd its Big Springs refinery as a master limited partnership, Alon USA Partners LP,�the proceeds of which Alon used to pay down debt.
Hot Japanese Companies To Invest In Right Now: World Wrestling Entertainment Inc.(WWE)
World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc., an integrated media and entertainment company, engages in the sports entertainment business. The company develops content centered around its talent, and presents at its live and televised events featuring World Wrestling Entertainment. It operates through four segments: Live and Televised Entertainment, Consumer Products, Digital Media, and WWE Studios. The Live and Televised Entertainment segment conducts live events; produces television shows; sells merchandise at its live events; provides sponsorships, such as various promotional vehicles, including Internet and print advertising, arena signage, on-air announcements, and pay-per-view sponsorships for advertisers; offers television rights; and markets and promotes the storylines associated with pay-per-view events. It also provides WWE Classics On Demand, a subscription video on demand service that offers classic television shows, pay-per-view events, specials, and original programmi ng. This segment distributes its programming in approximately 30 languages and in approximately 145 countries. Its merchandise consists of various WWE-branded products, such as T-shirts, caps, and other novelty items. The Consumer Products segment licenses and sells retail products, including toys, video games, home videos, apparel, and books; and publishes magazines comprising lifestyle publications with native language editions in the UK, Mexico, Greece, and Turkey. The Digital Media segment operates Web sites; provides advertising services; sells merchandise on its Web site at WWEShop Internet storefront; and offers broadband and mobile content. The WWE Studios segment is involved in the distribution of entertainment films. This segment focuses on creating a mix of filmed entertainment. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Johanna Bennett]
Talk about a body slam. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) reported a smaller than expected loss for the second quarter and cut a deal with Rogers Media, to be the exclusive distribution partner of all WWE pay-per-view events throughout Canada. The news�sent shares rising 3.6% to $12.54 in afternoon market action.
World Wrestling plans to get its WWE Network to 1.4 million subscribers; almost twice the number it had at the end of the second quarter. To do that, it has announced new pricing options and plans to cut its workforce by 7%.
The stock crashed in May after concerns about the company’s new long-term television agreement with Comcast’s NBCUniversal.
Hot Japanese Companies To Invest In Right Now: VASCO Data Security International Inc. (VDSI)
VASCO Data Security International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, marketing, and support of hardware and software security systems that manage and secure access to information assets worldwide. The company offers hardware and software products in the areas of user authentication, electronic signatures, and digital signatures/public key infrastructure. It provides VACMAN Controller that supports multiple authentication technologies, including passwords, dynamic password technology, electronic signatures, digital signatures, and certificates and biometrics on one platform. The company also offers IDENTIKEY Server, a centralized authentication server that supports the deployment, use, and administration of DIGIPASS user authentication. In addition, it provides aXs GUARD Identifier, a standalone authentication solution, which offers two-factor authentication for remote access to a corporate network or to Web-based in-house business applicat ions; and aXs GUARD Gatekeeper that integrates DIGIPASS to provide secure two factor user authentication. Further, the company offers DIGIPASS product line exists as a family of software and hardware client authentication products and services for authenticating users to any network, including the Internet. Its DIGIPASS solution calculates dynamic signatures and passwords to authenticate users on a computer network and for various other applications. The DIGIPASS technology is also designed to operate on desktop personal computers or laptops, personal digital assistants, mobile phones, and smart cards. VASCO sells its security solutions through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, resellers, and systems integrators. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Sally Jones]
Vasco Data Security (VDSI): ReducedDown 20% over 12 months, Vasco Data Security has a market cap of $316.26 million; its shares were traded at around $8.01 with a P/E ratio of 27.40 and a P/B of 2.00.
- [By Garrett Cook]
VASCO Data Security International (NASDAQ: VDSI) shares were also up, gaining 16.12 percent to $13.47 after the company reported upbeat quarterly results and issued a strong FY14 revenue forecast.
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